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Plasticizer: Market Rising
- Dec 11, 2018 -

In November, the domestic DOP market declined, with the East China market falling from 9650 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.8%; Shandong fell from 9500 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.5%; South China dropped from 9800 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.1%; DBP, for example, dropped from 8550 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, a decline of 7%. In December, the plasticizer industry chain has entered a rebound stage, from propylene raw material to plasticizer products, into a boom stage.

China-US relations eased, crude oil rose sharply, propylene rebounded, raw materials octanol and butanol by propylene rose, but also follow-up, especially n-butanol, the increase has been increasing. Take Luxi Chemical Industry as an example, since December, the price of n-butyl has risen from 6,100 yuan/ton to 6,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.5%. The rise in raw materials drives up the cost side, and it also drives up the buying sentiment.

Peripheral release is good, domestic demand improves in the driving stage. Influenced by buying sentiment, inquiries and purchasing have improved. DOP and DBP manufacturers have put in a certain amount of investment, and some manufacturers have limited stock. For DBP, based on the raw material butanol, profit margin shrinks significantly, so the rise trend and increase follow-up significant; but for DOP, based on the lag of octanol adjustment, the industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, narrow rise, and tentative obvious.

For the plasticizer industry, the passivity is still obvious, so the expectation of follow-up growth is still insufficient. At present, propylene continues to rise, butyl octanol will continue to follow up, but based on the price gap between butyl octanol and octanol is still obvious, and octanol supply is still sufficient, it is expected to rise or be laborious. As for phthalic anhydride, the o-phthalic anhydride market has not improved at all, and the market turnover is still on the low side. For DOP, the cost conduction effect is not obvious for the time being. However, terminal demand has not improved. Buying sentiment stimulates the reserve stage obviously, and with caution, it is difficult for high-level market to trade volume, and will eventually return to just demand.

Lack of demand support, relying on other factors, limited space for good, short-term plasticizers are expected to continue to rise, but the basis of the rise in follow-up efforts, although raw materials up to drive the rise, but industry profits will continue to be constrained, and increasingly to the later period, the trade is becoming weaker.